The Compensatory Draft Pick system is not very well

understood by anyone who hasn’t made a study out of it.The 5 O’Clock Club: Explaining how compensatory draft picks work (Updated 25 Feb)It’s a ‘secret’ system that the league owners administer for themselves.However Youth Jamison Crowder Jersey , through close observation over a number of years, certain people have created a set of rules that seem to explain how the system works and are able to project compensatory picks annually with great accuracy.While OverTheCap didn’t figure out the rules, they have written extensively about the Compensatory Draft Pick system, and they publish a “Cancellation Chart” each season to help readers understand which teams are likely to receive compensatory picks.If you find yourself curious about how it all works, I suggest that you follow these links for in-depth discussion:https://overthecap.com/the-basics-and-methodology-of-projecting-the-nfls-compensatory-draft-picks/https://overthecap.com/compensatory-draft-picks-cancellation-chart/List of Compensatory Picks from 2015 onwardToday, OverTheCap published their annual projection of compensatory draft picks, and the article contained a small unwelcome surprise for Redskins fans.The Redskins currently are projected to have 8 draft picks to be exercised in the April draft (after the allocation of compensatory draft picks following the annual Spring League Meeting).This is a bit of a surprise because most people were expecting Washington to be awarded four compensatory picks, bringing them to a total of 9 picks to be used in April. While the Redskins will probably qualify for the maximum of four compensatory picks, only 32 picks are allocated by the league annually, and OverTheCap projects the Redskins to lose their “fourth” pick (the expected 7th rounder associated with Niles Paul) to the 32-pick limit.Now, OTC is good — not perfect — at projecting compensatory picks.Here’s what OTC, themselves, have to say about the formula:As I said, OTC isn’t flawless at projecting compensatory picks — they often miss a projection every year or two — but they’re pretty damned good.The one encouraging thing for Redskins fans is that the team’s 4th projected pick (the one connected to Niles Paul) is listed as the 33rd pick, making it the first one cut off after the 32-pick limit.If OTC has made a mistake in the projection that would move a player/team up the list, then the Redskins, based on the OTC chart, would be the most likely beneficiary.I wouldn’t get my hopes up.It looks like that late 7th round pick isn’t going to materialize.The good news is that OTC expects the NFL to award three compensatory picks to the Redskins:3rd round pick - Kirk Cousins5th round pick - Trent Murphy6th round pick - Ryan GrantThese three picks should supplement the 5 picks that the Redskins currently hold:1st round2nd round3rd round5th round7th roundThe Redskins currently-expected ten picks in the 2019 draft should look like this:Round 1 - 15th overallRound 2 - 46th overallRound 3 - 76th overallRound 3 - compensatoryRound 4 - traded to Packers for HaHa Clinton-DixRound 5 - 15th pick in the roundRound 5 - compensatoryRound 6 - Selected Adonis Alexander in 2018 supplemental draftRound 6 - compensatoryRound 7 - 13th pick in the round Juan Thornhill, CB/SSchool: Virginia| Conference: ACCExperience: Senior | Age: 2?Height / Weight: 6-0 / 210 lbsProjected Draft Status: Round 2-3NFL Comparison: Adrian AmosCollege StatisticsPlayer OverviewCame to Virginia rated as a three-star recruit. Thornhill started as a sophomore and Junior at corner Josh Norman Jersey , before moving to safety as a Senior.He led UVA with 98 tackles in 2018. Athletic Traits (Pre-Combine)You have to take these unofficials with a grain of salt, but only nine defensive backs have ran a better 3-cone time over the past five NFL Combines, and only ten DBs have jumped higher than Thornhill’s reported 40.5 inch vertical over the past five years.Given these reported workout numbers and based on his film, I would estimate Thornhill will run his 40 between 4.48 and 4.52 seconds. The Film.StrengthsAn experienced, savvy player, and a smooth athlete.Able to find the ball, with 26 passes defended, including thirteen interceptions in his career. Instincts and vision serve him well in zone coverage.Anticipates and mirrors routes well in man coverage. Durable. Missed only one game the past three seasons. Frequently lined up in press-man as a junior and experience as a corner gives him the versatility at the next level.As a safety, Thornhill can play as a single-high, cover-two, quarters, etc.Has the physical traits to lineup with flexed tight ends and big-bodied possession receivers. WeaknessesInconsistent making a play on the ball in the air.Not an intimidating striker as a tackler.May not have elite make-up speed to compensate for false steps. Sometimes he bit on double moves when playing corner, and could be exposed in the NFL if he is too aggressive. Quicker slot receivers, would likely be a difficult match-up for Thornhill. Does not profile well as a box safety.What Others Are Saying Draft analyst, Fran Duffy compares Thornhillto Eddie JacksonDuffy wrote ”I’ve been a fan of Juan Thornhill for a long time, going back to his sophomore season as a corner that the coaching staff talked about potentially moving to safety. That discussion continued into his junior year until injuries forced him to stay outside. Finally, in his senior season, the 6-1, 212-pounder slid inside for good and has been a playmaker for the Cavaliers all season long. The ball-hawking safety was an impact player for the UVA defense Youth Chase Roullier Jersey , and the way he patrols the secondary reminds me of another former corner who made the transition to the back end midway through his college career – Chicago Bears safety and former Alabama star Eddie Jackson.I like Thornhill a lot, and view him as a player who could hear his name called in the first round next spring.”Senior Bowl executive director Jim Nagy came away impressed, noting his “disciplined zone integrity, good anticipation, and secure hands (an underrated trait for a defensive back).” He also notes that he’s a quality defender in the box against the run, something you don’t see a lot of from rangy safeties. “NFL teams are very enticed by Thornhill’s skill-set as a safety and would even want to see him rep as an outside cornerback in a Senior Bowl environment,” writes Nagy. “If he continues to excel in his high/low safety role and displays adequate cover skills as a cornerback, Thornhill could become a favorite of many teams come draft time.”GBN Report - In today’s NFL, where the criteria for S play has turned from head-hunter to coverage guy, it is always worth watching when you find a S, who has previously played CB. Tony Pauline - Thornhill, a player who entered the season with middle round grades and someone we spoke highly of during our UVa preview, has been impressive (as a senior). Thornhill is a nice sized defensive back with a physical nature to his game. He’s stout defending the run and offers solid ball skills. Solid pre-draft workouts could push Thornhill into the third round.How Would He Fit On The Redskins A couple of months ago, the Redskins looked set at safety, with DJ Swearinger, HaHa Clinton Dix, and Montae Nicholson.Fast forward, and Swearinger is no longer on the team, Clinton Dix is a free agent Shawn Lauvao Jersey , and Nichloson has been arrested. Thornhill has experience at both safety and cornerback positions, giving him a lot of position flexibility entering the NFL. In 2018, Virginia’s Quin Blanding, despite being a former 5-star recruit and four year starter went undrafted.He was not alone, as Oklahoma’s Steven Parker, Georgia’s Dominque Sanders, and Ohio State’s Damon Webb also failed to be selected. The theme, big hitters with poor athleticism are being devalued by the NFL. If you can’t cover, the NFL has little use for you.Fortunately, Thornhill excels in coverage from a variety of techniques. He has a natural feel for spacing in zone coverage, while also effective in man coverage where his length and physicality can be smothering. In Adrian Amos and Eddie Jackson, the Chicago Bears have a great safety tandem, each of whom spent part of their collegiate career at corner.While I can see the Eddie Jackson comp, he wasarguably the best safety in the league in 2018, making the Amos comp a more realistic comparison. I think Thornhill can provide a similar skill set to the Redskins’ back end. Custom Cleveland Browns Jerseys